FUTURE OF DALLAS GOEDERT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR...OR IN THE DRAFT

There aren’t many uncertainties about the Eagles offense right now.

There is the identity of Mekhi Becton’s replacement at right guard. Will it be 2023 third-round pick Tyler Steen, or will it be new addition Kenyon Green, who was acquired in a trade with Houston earlier this month?

There is the third wide receiver spot. Has Jahan Dotson finally earned Jalen Hurts’ trust or will 6-6 Johnny Wilson start hanging on to balls and make a big second-year move?

But the biggest roster mystery right now is at tight end. Will Dallas Goedert be back for an eighth season with the team or will he be traded or be a post-June 1 release?

On the surface, getting rid of Goedert might seem absurd. He is one of the most complete tight ends in the league.

There is no doubt Dallas Goedert would love to come back for another chance for a second ring. Photo by Andy Lewis. 

He has averaged nearly four catches and 44 receiving yards per game in his career and is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, which is a pretty big deal on an offense that had the league’s highest run-play percentage (56.9) and finished second in rushing (179.3) last season on the way to their second Super Bowl title in eight years.

But there are a number of extenuating circumstances that are behind the 30-year-old Goedert’s uncertain future with the team that selected him in the second round of the 2018 draft.

For starters, there’s his contract status.

He is entering the final year of the four-year, $51 million extension he signed in November of 2021 and will be an unrestricted free agent after the ’25 season. 

When he plays,  Dallas Goedert is as good as any tight end in the league. But since 2020, the 30-year-old has missed 22 of 84 regular-season games because of injury. Photo by Andy Lewis

His $11.8 million salary-cap number this season is the fifth highest on the team, behind quarterback Jalen Hurts ($21.9M), wide receiver AJ Brown ($17.6M), right tackle Lane Johnson ($17.4M) and left tackle Jordan Mailata ($15.3M).

He doesn’t have any guaranteed money left on his deal, but he’ll be paid $15.5 million in base salary and bonuses this season if he is on the Eagles’ roster.

Goedert’s 2025 cap number hardly is an absurd one for a player of his caliber.

The team also could lower that number by restructuring his deal or signing him to another extension.

But there are a couple of reasons they don’t seem anxious to want to do that.

One is the age factor. He turned 30 in January and it’s not a young 30.

Goedert plays the game hard and with a certain amount of recklessness, and has taken his share of punishment.

The kind that speeds up the athletic aging process.

The other is his availability and production.

Since 2020, Goedert has missed 22 of 84 regular-season games because of injury.

That’s 4.4 missed games per season over that period. Over the last three seasons, he has missed 15 games, including seven last season because of knee and hamstring injuries, three in 2023 because of a fractured forearm and five in 2022 because of a shoulder injury.

The question of whether his value to the Eagles’ offense has dipped depends on what numbers you – and the Eagles -- look at. 

Last season, the offense averaged 28.6 points per game in the 13 regular-season and playoff games that Goedert participated in, and 33.7 in the seven games without him.

After averaging 14.8 and 12.8 yards per catch in 2021 and 2022, he has averaged just 10.0 and 11.8 yards per catch the last two seasons.

His first-down percentage on receptions has fallen steadily, from 75.0 in 2021 to 72.7 in 2022 to 55.9 in 2023 to 47.6 last year.

Dallas Goedert has always had great hands. But he rises to the top with his blocking skills. Goedert has been a big part of the success of the "Tush Push," the Eagles unstoppable quarterback sneak. Photo by Andy Lewis

According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per designed run with Goedert last season and just 4.7 without him.

But Pro Football Focus gave him a 57.1 run-blocking grade, which was one of the lowest grades of his career and one of the lowest among the NFL’s starting tight ends.

A year earlier, they gave him a 74.1 grade, which was the fifth highest among NFL tight ends.

The Eagles haven’t exactly been shopping Goedert, but they’ve put the word out to other teams that they’re willing to listen to offers for him.

They almost certainly wouldn’t be able to get a pick in the first three – and probably four -- rounds of next month’s draft for Goedert right now.

But teams have historically been more generous giving away future picks, which might appeal to general manager Howie Roseman.

The Eagles are going to be reloading their roster with younger, less expensive players in 2026. Including the projected picks they’re going to be getting for this year’s lost free agents.

They currently have 12 tentative picks in the ’26 draft, including three third-, two fourth- and three fifth-round picks.

If they could get, say, a fourth third-round pick next year for Goedert, they would have a lot of flexibility as far as moving up in the first two rounds.

The question, of course, is how much would the Eagles miss Goedert this season if they traded or released him.

His backup, Grant Calcaterra, has developed into a reliable receiving tight end.

He had 24 catches last year – 15 for first downs – had an 80.0 catch rate and averaged 12.4 yards per catch.

As far as his blocking, he’s graduated to the can-get-in-people’s-way level, which isn’t all that bad (see: Ertz, Zach).

The Eagles also signed two tight ends in the second phase of free agency – former Brown and Raider Harrison Bryant and former Colt Kylen Granson.

Bryant is a solid blocker. Not as good as Goedert but better than Calcaterra.

Granson is an undersized H-back type, who had 62 receptions in 2022-23 for the Colts.

Next month’s draft has what is considered by NFL personnel people to be a very deep tight end crop.

The Eagles would kill to get their hands on the draft’s top tight end – Penn State’s Tyler Warren – whose versatility and toughness would be a godsend to their offense. 

They could line him up in a hundred different places.

But I have yet to see a mock draft that has Warren slipping any further than 14th or 15th.

Even if they included Goedert in a deal, Roseman and the Eagles don’t really have the trade ammunition to move up into the top 12 or 13 spots this year.

The second best tight end in the draft, Michigan’s Colston Loveland, could slide into the bottom of the first round. Loveland is a tall (6-5) target with natural hands, but isn’t a particularly good blocker.

All of that said, it’s very possible the Eagles will just stand pat, hang on to Goedert for one last season and deal with his $11.8M cap number and hope that he stays healthier at 30 than he did at 29 and 28 and 27.

Stay tuned. *